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In July the current economic expansion in the United States officially became the longest on record dating back to 1854.
We publish our thoughts on the economy each quarter as part of our market review and outlook (link).
Right now, we believe the chance of a recession over the next year is still fairly low as the economy has several tailwinds: We believe the single biggest risk currently facing the United States economy is the trade war with China as manufacturing data has started to show cracks.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not protect against market risk.
No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.
The expansion started after the end of the Global Financial Crisis in June 2009 and has lasted 121 months.
Total GDP growth has expanded by 25% during the current expansion, far less than previous periods.
Annual GDP growth has averaged 2.3% Y/Y from 2010 to 2018, compared to 3.5% Y/Y in the sixty-year period from 1948 to 2007.
We acknowledge there are also other risks facing the economy and the markets (link), including, global growth deceleration, the inverted yield curve, Brexit, and the potential for new tariffs on other countries.
Our role at Winthrop Wealth Management is to help our clients identify, manage, and navigate risk by providing a comprehensive financial plan combined with a structured, consistent, and repeatable investment process.
There is no sector that is booming and therefore might bust.” At some point the economic expansion will end and the United States will have a recession. Predicting that a recession will occur is easy, predicting WHEN is far more difficult.